A few scattered thoughts on the election
Adam's Notes for May 8, 2025
It’s good to see the Conservatives eat shit, and it’s good to gloat about it
Yes, they had their best share of the vote since Mulroney was in office, but they didn’t win, did they? No, they did not. They blew a 25 point lead, two of the party’s most prominent politicians—Doug Ford and Tim Houston—turned on the campaign, and the leader lost his seat. That’s worth gloating over.
I can’t stress how important it is to rub their noses in this shit. I’m in Alberta and I’m surrounded by conservatives and what I’ve found works is to take a condescending, faux-sympathetic tone to offer advice that isn’t really advice but actually a reminder of their shortcomings, such as:
You have to offer people something positive and tangible, not just platitudes and tax cut talk.
Grievance politics don’t really work in Canada, that’s just for online. You have to go outside and touch grass, etc.
You have to try to win people over instead of tearing people down.
It’s annoying, but you actually need a leader who is charismatic and seems to be having fun in a way that invites other people to join in. It sucks to admit it, but this is as important as policy.
Normal people don’t really like Pierre Poilievre. He’s weird. He’s only a good debater because the bar is so low in Canada, not because he’s right. And so while sometimes his interlocutors don’t have an answer for him in the moment, everyone still knows he’s in the wrong.
Etc, etc. This tends to annoy them but there’s no real comeback because it’s all true.
Alberta separatism isn’t real
Yves-Francois Blanchett is right when he says that to separate you first need to define yourself as a nation, with a culture, and oil and gas don’t count. But it would be very funny if Danielle Smith’s encouragement of this sort of rhetoric somehow put Poilievre’s byelection layup in jeopardy.
Mark Carney is a better politician than I gave him credit for…
Bringing the king over for a throne speech is, I hate to say it, a good move. Trump is the last person on Earth, or at least North America, who is still deeply impressed by the monarchy. He also seems to appreciate Carney’s credentials, and for that matter, Carney seems to have handled Trump about as well as could be expected. I feel like if there was a good negotiating team, we could get tariffs cancelled across the Commonwealth in return for giving Trump a knighthood.
I’ve seen a lot of pro-Carney people admitting they’re afraid he won’t be able to handle Question Period, but I no longer think that’s the case. I mean, true, he’s inexperienced in that kind of politics, but on the other hand you have to imagine the UK’s parliamentary committees that he had to answer to were much more rigorous than anything Ottawa will throw at him. And that drunk lady at his victory speech didn’t rattle him any. That said, Carney won’t be able to deliver the one thing his voters want most, which is a reprieve from politics. He doesn’t have a majority, is unlikely to find anyone to cross the floor, and plans on negotiating everything piecemeal, which means there’ll be another election sooner rather than later. If he starts hitting the austerity button—and I have no reason to believe he’ll do anything except hit it—then he’s going to end up about as popular as Kier Starmer and Justin Trudeau.
… but Carney was wrong to offer Pierre Poilievre a break
By law, the prime minister can wait six months before calling a byelection, but Carney said, “I will ensure that it happens as soon as possible. No games, nothing.” A bunch of commentators who should know better are even giving him credit for saying this.
There’s absolutely no need for this. Helping Poilievre return to Parliament quicker is not a good thing. I suppose people are under the delusion that Poilievre—and thus politics in general—will be a little more tame, that Pierre will show some kind of gratitude. This is wrong. The Conservatives will credit Danny Keurig or whatever that Conservative MP’s name is for stepping down and triggering a byelection, that’s all. Most Conservative voters don’t even understand that the Prime Minister has a role in this. The only way to deal with the so-called populist wing of the conservative movement is to humble it, to put it under the boot and make it tase the leather. That means keeping Poilievre outside of Parliament, and not doing him any favours. Kick him out of Stornoway, even if he moves back in later. It’s not like he’s going to be homeless. Hell, it might even teach people that real evictions are violence visited upon the poor and working class, and that we have a societal responsibility to provide housing to people who can’t afford it.
While we’re at it, how did Andrew Scheer manage to claw his way back to the top? He lost his party’s leadership because he was using party funds for his own gain, and now he’s Leader of the Opposition again? And somehow the Conservatives get credit for being the fiscally responsible party?
Silver lining for the NDP?
It sucks the NDP got wiped out. Niki Ashton and Matthew Green were among the best MPs we had in Parliament. But let’s be honest, the party had it coming. Best case scenario is that Carney’s election will be akin to Charles VIII’s invasion of Italy, and the party will finally listen to us Savonarolists on twitter who have been calling on the party to get right with God/move to the left for once. Maybe a little bonfire of the vanities, as a treat. That’s a bad analogy, I’ve just been reading about Savonarola recently and wanted to mention him. His problem was that his boys got out ahead of him and started saying he could do magic, which obviously didn’t end well. My point is, taking a loss might be good for the party, give them a chance to do some soulsearching and ask themselves about the future of the party.
But that recent Leah Gazan tweet suggests it’s going to be an uphill battle.
I’m seeing people say Matthew Green should run for leader. I think he would make a good leader, but I also think it’s important to have a sitting MP in charge. Look at how Naheed Nenshi has been sidelined in Alberta. Green’s not going to get the courtesy treatment Pierre got, in part that’s because the NDP doesn’t have any safe seats. On the other hand, this minority parliament might be fragile, and it might not matter if he doesn’t have a seat so long as he can provide and withhold the three or four votes needed to pass legislation. The other name I’m hearing a lot is Alexandre Boulerice, who is in a much better position to run, having kept his seat in Montreal. He’s also the only NDP MP east of Winnipeg, which is nuts.
One thing I’ve been thinking about lately is a recent post by
, which argues convincingly that if the NDP want to be a serious force for good in this country they could start working outside of Parliament, building housing and grocery co-ops, owned by the party and managed by stakeholders. I don’t think the NDP as it exists today would be able to handle the backlash from the bewildered and thus enraged media, but it’s a beautiful idea.Elizabeth May should cross the floor to the Liberals
It’s win-win. May would finally get the position of power she’s been craving all these years, the Liberals would be that much closer to a majority, the Conservatives and NDP would have a new line of attack, and the public would never have to hear about Elizabeth May’s vanity project the Green Party ever again. Just don’t make her Speaker of the House. I know she loves that procedural wonk stuff, but I think everyone would grow tired of her there really fast. Likewise I don’t think she’d be a good fit for the chamber of sober second thought. Maybe Minister of Pretending We’ll Do Something About Climate Change, One Day.
Canada should have an itinerant capital
The whole thing with Stornoway got me thinking about an old idea of mine. Paris was not always the capital of France. During the Merovingian and Carolingian dynasties, there was no single capital, but rather an itinerant capital, moving in a circuit with the king and his court. It was itinerant because it had to be: if the court stayed put at any one place, they’d soon use up the area’s resources. Canada should do the same. Parliament should abandon Ottawa to roam the countryside. Think about the construction booms that precede the Olympics, and the infrastructure improvements that get left behind: there could be huge improvements to Iqaluit or Brandon or Charlottetown or wherever Parliament ends up for a period of, let’s say, three years. You get both Keynesianism pump priming and decentralization. Admittedly, this would be hell on Canada’s carbon goals and it would likely only inflame regionalist tensions, but who cares? It’s a fun idea and it would force MPs to get to know the country.
More from me:
Whoever Wins, We Lose: my pre-election take
Can Liberal candidate Evan Solomon Cross the Distance?
More from elsewhere:
Blueprints of Disruption: Jessa McLean and Matt Fodor Layton’s Legacy and the Decline of the NDP
The Orchard: Jeremy Appel and Erica Ifill discuss the election fallout
Thanks for reading.
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Don't forget. Folks can also build something entirely different from the NDP in this moment. People already are :)
CIRCLING BACK TO: "I suppose people are under the delusion that Poilievre—and thus politics in general—will be a little more tame, that Pierre will show some kind of gratitude. This is wrong." BECAUSE YOU NAILED IT.